Company:  Palisade Corporation (www.palisade.com)
Price:  $995 for Standard, $1595 for Pro
Rating:  4 out of 5 milestones
 

In the last post I discussed using PERT analysis in helping to better predict project outcomes.  But what if you want to see the effects of various duration risks at the same time on the project outcome?  There are several statistical modeling add-on programs to Microsoft Project, such as Palisade’s @Risk or Deltek’s Risk+ that allow you to statistically vary durations to see the probability effects on the project outcome.
 
I personally have used @Risk Professional (Version 4.1) for the past couple of years to allow me to better predict the project completion date based on applying various probability distribution functions on tasks throughout the project.  A better prediction of the project completion date is then developed through Monte Carlo simulation.  Although this doesn’t guarantee that the date will be hit (man, I’d finally get that promotion if it could), it can help you as a project manager to better predict dates based on known risks.  Rather than simply stating to stakeholders that a particular project will be done, say, by June 1^st, it allows you, as the project manager, to give a better picture by saying, “the chances of hitting June 1^st, based on known risks, is 85%” or “the team has 95% confidence in completing the project by September 10th”.
 
@Risk also helps you to identify which tasks are the most important by providing you sensitivity data and tornado graphs to show which tasks have the greatest impact on the project outputs. 
 
@Risk creates various statistical reports and graphs in Excel automatically, which makes it extremely easy to import into reports or presentations in other applications.  In addition, the Professional version of @RISK for Project includes a set of probability branching features that enable you to build in contingency plans if certain events occur.
 
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